implementing the Expected Goal (xG) model to predict scores in soccer matches

Izzatul Umami, Deden Hardan Gautama, Heliza Rahmania Hatta

Abstract


Football is a sport that has the most fans in the world. What makes sebak patterns so popular are their uncertain and unpredictable results. There are many factors that affect the outcome of a football match, including strategy, skill, and even luck. Therefore, guessing the results of a soccer match is an interesting problem. All shots are grouped into sections on the playing field and theoretical goal scores are applied to each area. The factors analyzed are: distance of shot from goal and angle of shot in relation to goal. When calculating xG, it is recommended that the distance and angle of the shot are important. The combination of the two xG factors is better calculated than each variable only. In addition, this xG check has been able to relatively accurately identify the mid-table teams that score and concede goals.

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Keywords


xG model, a soccer match, distance, predict scores

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